Legislature(2021 - 2022)SENATE FINANCE 532

04/20/2022 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE

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* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+= SB 199 PERM FUND; PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+= SB 121 PFAS USE & REMEDIATION; FIRE/WATER SAFETY TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
*+ SB 243 RAISE POWER COST EQUALIZATION TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
-- Public Testimony <Time Limit May Be Set> --
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
SENATE BILL NO. 199                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
   "An Act relating to use of income of the Alaska permanent                                                                    
   fund; relating  to  the  amount  of  the  permanent  fund                                                                    
   dividend; relating to the  duties of the  commissioner of                                                                    
   revenue; and providing for an effective date."                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:33:33 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Bishop  relayed that it  was the third  hearing for                                                                    
SB 199,  and the  committee would consider  fiscal modelling                                                                    
scenarios  presented  by  the Legislative  Finance  Division                                                                    
(LFD).                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:33:52 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:34:15 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
ALEXEI  PAINTER,  DIRECTOR,  LEGISLATIVE  FINANCE  DIVISION,                                                                    
discussed the presentation  "Fiscal Modeling: Senate Finance                                                                    
Committee  Scenarios; Senate  Finance  Committee, April  20,                                                                    
2022;  Legislative  Finance  Division" (copy  on  file).  He                                                                    
advanced to slide 2, "Outline":                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     ?Review of LFD Modeling Baseline Assumptions                                                                               
     ?Comparison of Senate Finance Committee Assumptions to                                                                     
     LFD Baseline                                                                                                               
     ?Fiscal Models Using Committee Assumptions                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  detailed  that  the  comparison  of  committee                                                                    
assumptions  was   different  than  the  previous   time  he                                                                    
presented in  order to reflect  changes in the  budget since                                                                    
that time.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:35:00 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  spoke to  slide  3,  "Review of  LFD  Modeling                                                                    
Baseline":                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     ?  Legislative Finance's  fiscal model  is designed  to                                                                    
     show  policy makers  the  longer-term impact of  fiscal                                                                  
     policy decisions.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     ?  The   baseline  assumptions  are   essentially  that                                                                    
     current  budget  levels  are maintained,  adjusted  for                                                                    
     inflation.  Policy  changes  are then  applied  against                                                                    
     that baseline.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     ?  Our default  is  to assume  that statutory  formulas                                                                    
     will be followed.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
       This includes a statutory PFD beginning FY23.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter referenced  slide 4,  "Review  of LFD  Modeling                                                                    
Baseline (cont.)":                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     Revenue Assumptions                                                                                                        
     ?   LFD's   baseline   revenue  assumptions   are   the                                                                    
     Department of Revenue's Spring Revenue Forecast.                                                                           
            This assumes $101 oil in FY23, following                                                                            
          futures market thereafter.                                                                                            
             DNR  oil   production  forecast  projects  that                                                                    
          Alaska North  Slope production will  increase from                                                                    
          502.3 thousand  barrels per day  in FY23  to 576.6                                                                    
          thousand barrels per day in FY31.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     ?  For  the  Permanent  Fund, we  use  Callan's  return                                                                    
     assumption  of 5.86%  total return  in  FY22 and  6.20%                                                                    
     thereafter.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter noted  that  the spring  forecast  was about  a                                                                    
month old and  the current futures market was  very close to                                                                    
the spring forecast with a  little flattening. He considered                                                                    
the  spring  forecast  to  be appropriate  for  use  in  the                                                                    
modelling.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter turned  to  slide 5,  "Review  of LFD  Modeling                                                                    
Baseline (cont.)":                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     Spending Assumptions                                                                                                       
     ?  For agency  operations, these  scenarios assume  the                                                                    
     Governor's  FY23 amended  budget  grows with  inflation                                                                    
     (2.25%).                                                                                                                   
     ? For  statewide items, the  baseline assumes  that all                                                                    
     items  are  funded  to their  statutory  levels  beyond                                                                    
     FY23.                                                                                                                      
            This includes School Debt Reimbursement, the                                                                        
          REAA Fund, Community Assistance, oil and gas tax                                                                      
          credits.                                                                                                              
     ?  For the  capital  budget, we  assume the  Governor's                                                                    
     FY23 capital budget grows with inflation (2.25%)                                                                           
     ? For  supplementals we assume $50.0  million per year.                                                                    
     This  is based  on the  average amount  of supplemental                                                                    
     appropriations minus lapsing funds each year.                                                                              
     ? For the  PFD, we assume a statutory  dividend is paid                                                                    
     annually beginning FY23.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter considered  slide 6,  "LFD Modeling  Baseline,"                                                                    
which showed  two bar  graphs entitled  'UGF Budget/Revenue'                                                                    
and 'Budget Reserves; FY-ending  Balance.' He mentioned that                                                                    
at the top  there was a line showing  the surplus/deficit in                                                                    
millions  starting with  FY 22  going  to FY  31. The  black                                                                    
numbers  indicated surpluses  in FY  22 through  FY 24,  and                                                                    
projected  deficits from  FY 26  and beyond.  He highlighted                                                                    
that the graph  on the left showed budget  and revenue, with                                                                    
revenue  shown in  blue bars  for  traditional revenue  from                                                                    
petroleum and  non-petroleum sources and green  bars for the                                                                    
percent  of  market value  (POMV)  draws.  The other  colors                                                                    
signified other  draws from  various savings  accounts, most                                                                    
notably  in  yellow  there  was  the  Constitutional  budget                                                                    
Reserve  (CBR)  and  Statutory  Budget  Reserve  (SBR),  the                                                                    
states main savings accounts.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  explained that  the graph  on the  right showed                                                                    
savings  accounts  end-of-year  balances,  with  the  yellow                                                                    
showing combined CBR/SBR and the  green showing the realized                                                                    
value of  the Earnings Reserve Account  (ERA). He summarized                                                                    
that the slide  showed that with a statutory  PFD that would                                                                    
pay  about $4,200  per person  in FY  23, there  would be  a                                                                    
surplus (based  on the governors   amended budget)  of about                                                                    
$700 million, but  by FY 25 there would be  a deficit due to                                                                    
projected  oil price  declines. The  deficit would  start at                                                                    
about  $300 million,  changing to  between $500  million and                                                                    
$800 million  in subsequent years. Because  of the surpluses                                                                    
in  early years,  savings accounts  would grow  by up  to $5                                                                    
billion by the  first year, so even with  deficits the state                                                                    
would not need ERA overdraws for the scenario.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:39:11 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter displayed  slide 7,  "Senate Finance  Committee                                                                    
Scenarios":                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Committee Chair  asked for modeling with  the following                                                                    
     assumptions that differ from LFD's baseline:                                                                               
     ? Capital  budget baseline of $400  million (instead of                                                                    
     $195.4 million)                                                                                                            
     ?  All oil  revenues resulting  from ANS  prices beyond                                                                    
     $100/barrel deposited into Permanent Fund                                                                                  
     ? Agency operations assume FY23  SCS2 budget growing at                                                                    
     2.25%.                                                                                                                     
     ? Assume  expiring federal funds are  replaced with UGF                                                                    
     and PERS healthcare is funded after FY23                                                                                   
     ? Varying  PFD scenarios:  statutory PFD, 50%  of POMV,                                                                    
     and SB 199 with trigger passing and failing.                                                                               
     ? Deficits are  first filled with K-12 Forward Funding.                                                                  
     CBR/SBR deficit draws only occur  after the entirety of                                                                    
     Forward Funding is used to fill deficits.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  discussed the  assumptions for  the committees                                                                     
requested modelling  scenarios. He  noted that  when looking                                                                    
at the  probabilistic model, the surplus  size flattened out                                                                    
a bit because  at a certain point the surplus  from high oil                                                                    
prices  got   deposited  into  the  Permanent   Fund,  which                                                                    
depressed the top  of the range. He mentioned  a stress test                                                                    
scenario that had  agency budget growth at  5 percent, which                                                                    
was  roughly  equal  to  the  amount  the  Senate  Committee                                                                    
Substitute (CS) grew versus the  FY 22 budget. He noted that                                                                    
in  the  CS, the  PERS  healthcare  funding  for FY  23  was                                                                    
deposited into  the Pension Fund,  but the  scenario assumed                                                                    
it would go into the Healthcare Fund in future years.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  explained that  the bill  had a  Permanent Fund                                                                    
Dividend  (PFD)   amount  that  would  change   based  on  a                                                                    
triggering mechanism  that considered  the presence  of $800                                                                    
million  in new  revenues enacted.  He would  show scenarios                                                                    
with the new revenue and without.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter looked at slide 8, "SCS2 Budget":                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     The SCS2 budget has significant changes from the                                                                           
     Governor's amended budget, including:                                                                                      
     ? $60m  FY22 supplemental appropriation to  oil and gas                                                                    
     tax credit fund.                                                                                                           
     ? $1,215m for Forward-Funding K-12 in FY23. Modeling                                                                   
     assumes this funding is reduced to fill deficits.                                                                          
     ? Added $27m UGF to offset state agencies' increased                                                                       
     fuel costs.                                                                                                                
     ? Added $300m FY22 supplemental ARPA revenue                                                                               
     replacement. Remaining $186m used in FY23.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  detailed that  one  of  the uses  of  American                                                                    
Rescue  Plan   Act  (ARPA)  funding  was   to  replace  lost                                                                    
Unrestricted General Fund (UGF) revenue.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:44:06 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter highlighted  slide  9,  "SCS2 Fiscal  Summary,"                                                                    
which showed  a table.  He noted  that SB  199 would  have a                                                                    
50/50  dividend. He  pointed out  key figures  on the  table                                                                    
that  left  a  roughly  balanced budget:  the  ongoing  pre-                                                                    
transfer surplus of  $937 million in FY 22,  and $43 million                                                                    
in  FY 23.  There was  some  use of  savings that  generated                                                                    
additional surplus, which in FY  22 resulted in $1.2 billion                                                                    
post-transfer surplus, and  in FY 23 resulted in  a bit over                                                                    
$200 million in surplus. He  pointed out a combined total of                                                                    
about  $3.5  billion  for   SBR  and  Constitutional  Budget                                                                    
Reserve  (CBR)  balances. When  added  to  the K-12  forward                                                                    
funding, there was  close to $4.7 billion  of liquid savings                                                                    
that could be used to fill future deficits.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  addressed  slide  10,  "Comparison  of  Senate                                                                    
Finance - Scenario  to LFD Baseline," which  showed a table.                                                                    
He noted  that the LFD baseline  essentially represented the                                                                    
governor's budget  growing with  inflation. In FY  23, there                                                                    
was a $1.7  billion difference due in part  to one-time K-12                                                                    
forward  funding.  On  an   ongoing  basis,  the  assumption                                                                    
difference was  about $450  million of  additional spending,                                                                    
with  half in  capital  expenditures and  half in  operating                                                                    
expenditures.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator von  Imhof asked if the  blue bars on the  bar graph                                                                    
showed  the  governors   budget  and  asked  if  the  amount                                                                    
included  all   the  different  amendments  that   had  been                                                                    
proposed in the previous four months.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter answered  in the affirmative and  noted that the                                                                    
amount  included the  federal  infrastructure  bill and  the                                                                    
amendments for recent salary adjustments.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter advanced  to  slide 11,  "Oil  Prices, FY22  to                                                                    
Date," which  showed a line  graph entitled 'ANS  West Coast                                                                    
Price.' He explained that the  spring forecast had shown oil                                                                    
price at its  peak, and it had been  volatile since. Earlier                                                                    
in the  year the  prices were lower,  with a  ramp-up before                                                                    
the Russian  invasion of Ukraine.  He highlighted  that when                                                                    
looking  at  the  fiscal  modelling  scenarios,  the  spring                                                                    
forecast assumed  that oil prices  would return to  the pre-                                                                    
war  level within  a  few years.  He  noted that  volatility                                                                    
scenarios would  show oil price at  significantly higher and                                                                    
lower ranges.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:48:46 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator von Imhof  noted that the slide  started showing the                                                                    
price of  oil in  July 2021  and thought  if the  graph been                                                                    
started  two years  prior it  would  have reflected  greater                                                                    
volatility.  She  thought  it  was important  to  note  that                                                                    
volatility  in   the  price  of  oil   was  commonplace  and                                                                    
mentioned  the  amount  available   to  spend  currently  as                                                                    
compared to two years previously.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  thought Senator  von  Imhof  had made  a  good                                                                    
point. He noted that the price  of oil had briefly been zero                                                                    
two years previously, and then  touched $125/bbl. He thought                                                                    
when looking at scenarios  and modelling, one could consider                                                                    
the extreme cases of volatility that had already occurred.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator von Imhof  asked to go back to slide  10. She looked                                                                    
at FY  23, and  thought it  was important  to note  that the                                                                    
committee  proposed   to  fund   several  things   that  the                                                                    
governors  budget had not, such  as the Regional Educational                                                                    
Attendance  Area  (REAA)  Fund,  community  assistance,  and                                                                    
deferred maintenance. She thought  the committee proposed to                                                                    
fund items that had not been funded for many years.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Bishop answered  "yes."  He noted  that there  was                                                                    
also a supplemental included in the total.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  stated that the supplemental  was not included.                                                                    
He explained that  the major difference in the  lines on the                                                                    
graph was the K-12 forward  funding of $1.2 billion. Much of                                                                    
the  additional  spending used  UGF  for  the Alaska  Marine                                                                    
Highway  System (AMHS)  and $400  million  proposed for  the                                                                    
capital budget.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Senator von  Imhof asked to  confirm that the  largest chunk                                                                    
of additional  spending proposed  by the committee  was $1.2                                                                    
billion for forward funding education.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter looked at slide 12, "Stress Tests":                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     ? Two types of stress tests performed:                                                                                     
            Budget stress test: grow agency operations and                                                                      
          capital budget by 5% per year instead of 2.25%                                                                        
            Revenue stress test: use probabilistic modeling                                                                     
          to simulate a range of possible oil prices and                                                                        
          investment returns                                                                                                    
     ? For each PFD scenario, we will show the non- stressed                                                                  
     model output and the two stress tests                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter discussed consideration of inflation rates.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:52:56 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  showed slide 13, "Stress  Test: 25th Percentile                                                                    
Example":                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     ? Example of a single case, for which 25% of total                                                                         
     cases see greater overall deficits.                                                                                        
     ? Example case has average oil price of $77 and                                                                            
     average Permanent Fund return of 7.0%                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter pointed  out the  volatility on  the graph.  He                                                                    
directed  attention  to  the graph  on  the  right  entitled                                                                    
'Permanent  Fund  Total  Return,' and  commented  that  even                                                                    
though there were decent years  in later years, the value of                                                                    
the Permanent Fund  was reduced. He thought  the sequence of                                                                    
returns for  the fund was  quite important rather  than just                                                                    
considering   a  straight   average.  He   noted  that   oil                                                                    
volatility and  the sequence  of returns  in the  model were                                                                    
not favorable.  He thought deterministic modelling  could be                                                                    
misleadingly   positive   versus   the  actual   impact   of                                                                    
volatility in the real world.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  referenced slide  14,  "Statutory  PFD -  SFIN                                                                    
Baseline (2.25%  Growth)," which  showed two bar  graphs. He                                                                    
explained   that  the   scenario   included  the   committee                                                                    
assumptions.  He pointed  out  items on  the  bottom of  the                                                                    
slide that  indicated the  cost of the  PFD in  the scenario                                                                    
and the amount per person.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:56:24 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CONNOR  BELL,  FISCAL  ANALYST  AND  ECONOMIST,  LEGISLATIVE                                                                    
FINANCE DIVISION  (via teleconference), addressed  slide 14.                                                                    
He explained  that the slide  depicted a scenario  showing a                                                                    
statutory  PFD with  a 2.25  percent growth  rate of  agency                                                                    
operations  and  capital  budget. The  scenario  included  a                                                                    
deficit of  $1.1 billion in FY  23, which was higher  in the                                                                    
following years because of the  $1.2 billion in K-12 forward                                                                    
funding discussed  earlier. He  highlighted the grey  bar on                                                                    
the graph. The forward funding  was shown as an expenditure,                                                                    
and later several hundred million  of the funding amount was                                                                    
used to  fill deficits in  FY 23.  He pointed out  the brown                                                                    
portion  of the  bar  that showed  ARPA revenue  replacement                                                                    
filling the  first few hundred  million of the  $1.1 billion                                                                    
pre-transfer deficit.  There were smaller deficits  after FY                                                                    
23,  with  deficits growing  and  then  unplanned ERA  draws                                                                    
beginning in  FY 28. He  pointed out  that the graph  on the                                                                    
right,  'Budget  Reserves,'  showed  that the  CBR  hit  the                                                                    
minimum balance  of $500 million  in FY 27, after  which the                                                                    
unplanned ERA draws began.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell turned to slide  15, "Statutory PFD - SFIN Baseline                                                                    
(5% Growth)," which  showed an identical slide  to slide 14,                                                                    
with  the exception  of 5  percent budget  growth in  agency                                                                    
operations and  capital expenditure.  He explained  that the                                                                    
FY 23  budget was  the same as  the previous  scenario, with                                                                    
the  difference between  the slides  compounding over  time.                                                                    
The deficits grew  significantly, up to $2.2  billion by the                                                                    
end  of  the  period.  The K-12  forward  funding  reduction                                                                    
filled the FY  23 through part of the FY  25 deficits, after                                                                    
which the  CBR and SBR were  relied on until FY  27 when you                                                                    
could see  ERA overdraws. The  realized ERA balance  fell to                                                                    
about $7 billion by FY 31  due to the sustained overdraws to                                                                    
the fund.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator von  Imhof thought slide  14 and slide  15 indicated                                                                    
that  inflation had  a significant  impact  on expenses  and                                                                    
could not be ignored. She  was reminded of the importance of                                                                    
inflation-proofing  the Permanent  Fund corpus.  She thought                                                                    
the committee  should consider  inflation growth  rates. She                                                                    
thought  it  was wise  to  model  different inflation  rates                                                                    
because it was material.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:00:53 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bell  considered slide  16,  "Statutory  PFD -  Revenue                                                                    
Stress  Test,"  which  showed  the   statutory  PFD  in  the                                                                    
probabilistic scenario.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  addressed slide 16  and pointed out  the median                                                                    
deficit each year shown on  the top. The left-hand graph was                                                                    
on a previous slide. The  blue bar in the middle represented                                                                    
the  median scenario,  the green  bars represented  the 25th                                                                    
and   75th  percentile   scenarios,  and   the  black   line                                                                    
represented the  10th and 90th  percentile. He  expected the                                                                    
vast majority of  scenarios would fall within  the lines. He                                                                    
pointed out  that in FY 23  there was a  bunching  up  where                                                                    
the  median, the  90th percentile,  and the  75th percentile                                                                    
were shown in the same place  because the impact of the $100                                                                    
per barrel draw into the  Permanent Fund. Since the baseline                                                                    
forecast  going   forward  was   reduced,  there   was  less                                                                    
compression in the graph.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter addressed  the graph on the  right, which showed                                                                    
the  range of  fiscal  year-end realized  ERA balances.  The                                                                    
bottom of the slide showed a  table with CBR and SBR balance                                                                    
probabilities, which were below a  certain amount. In FY 23,                                                                    
there was  a 100 percent  probability that the  combined CBR                                                                    
and SBR  values were below  $4 billion,  and by FY  31 there                                                                    
was  a 90  percent  probability. The  other probability  was                                                                    
that the  CBR and SBR would  be below $500 million.  For the                                                                    
models,  LFD  assumed that  there  would  be at  least  $500                                                                    
million as a  balance, so the scenarios had  to overdraw the                                                                    
ERA.  The   scenario  could  also  be   interpreted  as  the                                                                    
probability of  an ERA  overdraw. In  FY 23  the probability                                                                    
was fairly low at 21  percent, but the figure increased over                                                                    
time (as the revenue risk  increased) to somewhere around 60                                                                    
percent.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:04:34 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell  displayed slide  17, "50%  of POMV  to PFD  - SFIN                                                                    
Baseline  (2.25%  Growth),"  which  showed  the  same  three                                                                    
scenarios except  for the 50/50  PFD, which was half  of the                                                                    
POMV draw from the Permanent  Fund. The first graph showed a                                                                    
baseline   of  2.25   percent  annual   growth  for   agency                                                                    
operations and  capital expenditures.  The FY 23  budget was                                                                    
roughly balanced. He  noted that there was  an assumption of                                                                    
$50 million in  supplemental budget expense in  FY 23, which                                                                    
would  not show  up in  the  fiscal summary.  He noted  that                                                                    
there  was higher  spending in  FY 23,  and FY  24 showed  a                                                                    
significant surplus,  which fell  into deficits  starting in                                                                    
FY  26.  The  forward-funding reduction  was  sufficient  to                                                                    
cover the deficits through FY  28, after which began CBR and                                                                    
SBR draws in FY 29. There  were no overdraws from the ERA in                                                                    
the scenario. He  drew attention to the  combined balance of                                                                    
CBR and  SBR and realized  ERA was  over $20 billion  by the                                                                    
end of the period.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Senator Wilson  commented that with the  50/50 PFD scenario,                                                                    
a low  budget and modest  revenues showed that  the scenario                                                                    
could work.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Bishop referenced the following slide.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell  highlighted slide 18, "50%  of POMV to PFD  - SFIN                                                                    
Baseline  (5% Growth),"  which showed  a slide  identical to                                                                    
slide  17 but  for  5  percent in  annual  growth of  agency                                                                    
operations  and capital  spending. He  highlighted that  the                                                                    
$12  million FY  23 deficit  was  the same,  with a  roughly                                                                    
balanced budget.  The deficit started  to grow based  on the                                                                    
different  compounding  spending   growth.  He  pointed  out                                                                    
deficit growth  up to over $1  billion by FY 28  and then up                                                                    
to $1.6  billion to $1.7 billion  by the end of  the period.                                                                    
Due  to  the significant  reserves  balance  in the  earlier                                                                    
period, the ERA was only overdrawn  in the last two years of                                                                    
the scenario. He cited that  the CBR/SBR and forward-funding                                                                    
reductions filled the deficits through FY 29.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:08:03 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell looked  at slide 19, "50% of POMV  to PFD - Revenue                                                                    
Stress  Test," which  showed two  graphs: 'Surplus/(Deficit)                                                                    
by  Fiscal   Year,'  and  'Range  of   FY-End  Realized  ERA                                                                    
Balances.' He  cited that median  surplus and  deficit shown                                                                    
was similar  to what  was shown  two slides  previously, but                                                                    
the amounts differed in later  years. He pointed out that on                                                                    
the  lefthand  graph the  median  and  75th percentile  were                                                                    
roughly  the same  with the  assumption that  any oil  price                                                                    
over $100/bbl  would be deposited into  the principal, which                                                                    
was only forecast for the first  year. After FY 23, about 50                                                                    
percent of the scenarios  modelled showed between roughly $1                                                                    
billion to  $1.2 billion in  deficits ranging to  about $500                                                                    
million to  $1.5 billion in surpluses.  The right-hand graph                                                                    
showed  the median  realized ERA  balance slowly  declining,                                                                    
with the ERA going to zero in the percentile.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell noted that in the  absence of any ERA overdraws, it                                                                    
was still possible  for the account to draw  towards zero as                                                                    
in  the   more  negative  scenarios,  such   successive  low                                                                    
Permanent Fund  returns, and other  factors combined  with a                                                                    
poor  market.  He explained  that  it  did not  require  ERA                                                                    
overdraws for  the ERA  to draw  down to  zero. At  the 75th                                                                    
percentile  the scenario  showed  the  realized ERA  balance                                                                    
growing up  to and beyond  $30 billion. He pointed  out that                                                                    
the  bottom  row  of  figures  showed  the  CBR/SBR  balance                                                                    
probabilities.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:11:49 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell  addressed slide  20, "SB  199, Trigger  Succeeds -                                                                    
SFIN Baseline  (2.25% Growth)," which  showed SB  199, first                                                                    
depicting three  different models  with the  assumption that                                                                    
the bills   trigger provision succeeded and  $800 million in                                                                    
new  revenue was  instituted in  FY 27.  The funds  would be                                                                    
added  to the  baseline  revenue assumption  for each  year.                                                                    
Under the scenario  the PFD would be 25 percent  of the POMV                                                                    
draw  until FY  27, after  which the  PFD would  grow to  50                                                                    
percent of the  POMV. He noted that the bottom  of the slide                                                                    
showed the  PFD at  $1600 per  person in  FY 27,  growing to                                                                    
$3200 per  person in FY  28 when there  was a change  in the                                                                    
PFD  formula. There  were surpluses  throughout the  period,                                                                    
with no need for ERA overdraws or use of the SBR and CBR.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Wilson considered  the history  of the  legislature                                                                    
and  the  history  of legislative  spending  in  significant                                                                    
revenue years. He  asked if LFD felt that  the numbers would                                                                    
stay static. He wondered if  there was a historical spending                                                                    
ratio that could be applied to the models.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter thought the current  year's budget could be used                                                                    
an  example  of what  Senator  Wilson  was referencing;  the                                                                    
growth was at  5 percent and the capital  budget was growing                                                                    
significantly.  He  continued that  starting  in  FY 05  and                                                                    
going through  FY 14, the  state operating budget  had grown                                                                    
by an average of almost  8 percent per year. He acknowledged                                                                    
that  the legislature  had chosen  to  increase spending  in                                                                    
times of greater  revenue, which he emphasized  was a policy                                                                    
choice that LFD could not  predict. He added that there were                                                                    
still significant surpluses during  the period, but spending                                                                    
also grew faster than inflation.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Bishop  made the  point that  some of  the spending                                                                    
went towards the deferred maintenance  backlog. He asked how                                                                    
much of the 8 percent went to deferred maintenance.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  clarified that the  eight percent  increase was                                                                    
from the agency  operations portion of the  budget. He noted                                                                    
that some  of the 8 percent  of agency growth had  gone into                                                                    
daily  maintenance,   but  not  necessarily   into  deferred                                                                    
maintenance.  By FY  04, there  had been  about 15  years of                                                                    
flat  or  declining  budgets.  There  was  quite  a  bit  of                                                                    
deferred growth. He  noted that employee wages  had not been                                                                    
increased in several  years, and there was  faster growth in                                                                    
contracts than previous years.  He referenced pent-up demand                                                                    
for spending as a result of multiple years of flat budgets.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:16:15 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  referenced  the  mention  of  salary  and                                                                    
benefit increases  in all three  branches of  government. He                                                                    
thought  the  committee  had  to  make  some  decisions.  He                                                                    
thought  there  was upward  pressure.  He  commented on  the                                                                    
previous flat inflation and the  current inflation spike. He                                                                    
thought it  was most likely  that the inflation  trend would                                                                    
continue for several  years. He thought the  slide showed an                                                                    
optimistically  low  rate  of   inflation.  He  thought  the                                                                    
committee should take the inflations effect into account.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell advanced  to slide 21, "SB 199,  Trigger Succeeds -                                                                    
Budget  Stress Test  (5% Growth),"  explained that  slide 21                                                                    
was similar to the prior slide  but for the 5 percent growth                                                                    
assumption in agency and capital  spending. In the scenario,                                                                    
there were strong surpluses during  the first several years,                                                                    
but beginning  in FY  28 there  were deficits.  The deficits                                                                    
were filled  by the  K-12 forward-funding reduction  for the                                                                    
first  two years,  after which  the CBR  and SBR  filled the                                                                    
deficits.  There  were no  ERA  overdraws  required and  the                                                                    
ending CBR/SBR combined balance was  about $8 billion at the                                                                    
end  of  the  period.  He  noted that  the  PFD  amount  was                                                                    
depicted on the bottom on the  slide and pointed out that it                                                                    
jumped up to 50 percent of the  POMV in FY 28 like the prior                                                                    
slide. He  noted that the  orange bars  on the graph  on the                                                                    
left showed the  $800 million in new annual  revenue as part                                                                    
of the plan.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:20:27 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bell  showed slide  22,  "SB  199, Trigger  Succeeds  -                                                                    
Revenue  Stress Test,"  which included  the $800  million in                                                                    
new revenue and the 25  percent POMV dividend that jumped to                                                                    
50 percent in FY 28.  With the probabilistic modeling, in FY                                                                    
23 there  was a  range of  a $1 billion  deficit to  an $800                                                                    
million surplus. He pointed out  that since any revenue over                                                                    
$100/bbl went  to the Permanent Fund  principal, the maximum                                                                    
surplus  would be  $830 million.  The following  three years                                                                    
showed a range of $2.5  billion to zero surplus. The jump-up                                                                    
in FY  27 was due  to the institution  of the first  year of                                                                    
the $800  million in  new revenue while  the higher  PFD had                                                                    
not  started yet.  Beginning in  FY 28  there was  a similar                                                                    
range of  between $300 million  to $500 million  in deficits                                                                    
and $1.5 billion  surpluses in half of the  cases. The graph                                                                    
on the  right showed that  there were only ERA  overdraws in                                                                    
about 1 percent or 2 percent  of cases per given year. There                                                                    
was still  some chance  of the  ERA going  to zero  if there                                                                    
were  poor   returns,  but  there   was  also   a  plausible                                                                    
likelihood   of  the   ERA   exceeding   $30  billion.   The                                                                    
assumptions  also   showed  a  high  likelihood   (about  93                                                                    
percent)  that the  CBR/SBR  combined  total became  greater                                                                    
than $4 billion in the later years.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell  spoke to slide 23,  "SB 199, Trigger Fails  - SFIN                                                                    
Baseline  (2.25% Growth),"  which modelled  the bill  effect                                                                    
assuming the trigger failed, no  new revenue was instituted,                                                                    
and the  PFD was 25  percent of the  POMV for all  years. He                                                                    
pointed  out the  PFD  per-person amount  at  the bottom  as                                                                    
$1,200 in  FY 23, growing to  about $1,700 per person  in FY                                                                    
31. There  were surpluses shown throughout  the period, with                                                                    
the  2.5 percent  growth  assumption.  The combined  reserve                                                                    
balances exceeded $30 billion by  the end of the period, and                                                                    
there was no reserve draw required.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:23:50 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bell  discussed slide  24,  "SB  199, Trigger  Fails  -                                                                    
Budget  Stress  Test (5%  Growth),"  which  showed the  same                                                                    
model  as  the previous  slide  but  with 5  percent  growth                                                                    
rather than  2.5 percent growth. He  cited deficits starting                                                                    
in  FY 28,  with healthy  reserves balances  and about  $100                                                                    
million to $500 million in deficits per year.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  von Imhof  thought the  previous two  slides showed                                                                    
how inflation  affected the long-term forecast.  She thought                                                                    
it was  important for the  committee to consider at  least a                                                                    
decade or  two. She  remarked on  the compounding  effect of                                                                    
inflation.  She  emphasized  that  she had  a  problem  with                                                                    
taxing people  in order to  pay a dividend. She  pointed out                                                                    
that  SB 199  had a  taxation component  in order  to pay  a                                                                    
dividend.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell showed  slide 25, "SB 199, Trigger  Fails - Revenue                                                                    
Stress Test,"  which showed a  25 percent POMV  dividend for                                                                    
all years,  with the probabilistic modelling.  He noted that                                                                    
the median surplus  and deficit was similar  to three slides                                                                    
prior. The  graph on the left,  'Surplus/(Deficit) by Fiscal                                                                    
Year' showed that in FY 23,  one could see the deficit range                                                                    
from $1 billion to $800 million  in surplus until FY 27. The                                                                    
range  was similar  throughout the  period, with  a balanced                                                                    
budget to  a few hundred  million in deficits ranging  up to                                                                    
over $2  billion or more in  surpluses in 50 percent  of the                                                                    
cases  in each  year.  There was  only about  a  one or  two                                                                    
percent chance  of requiring ERA overdraws  in the scenario.                                                                    
The chart on  the right was similar to that  of three slides                                                                    
previously since there were no ERA overdraws.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:27:01 AM                                                                                                                   
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:29:02 AM                                                                                                                   
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Bishop  relayed that the amendment  deadline for SB
199 was noon the following day.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
SB  199  was  HEARD  and   HELD  in  committee  for  further                                                                    
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
SB 121 Support Szczepanski PFAS.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 121
SB 121 Support Sylvester PFAS.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 121
SB 121 Support Miller.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 121
SB 121 ACC testimony on SB 121 - April 12.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 121
SB 121 Support PWSRCAC.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 121
SB 243 Sectional Analysis ver. B 4.19.22.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 243
SB 243 Supporting Document - AEA PCE Analysis from 500 to750.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 243
SB 199 SFIN Fiscal Modeling Presentation 4-20-22 UPDATED.pdf SFIN 4/20/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 199